Putin’s game of chicken is on a course to nuclear armageddon
Will Putin carry through with his threat of using nuclear weapons?
When Russian troops began amassing on its border with Ukraine earlier this year, many were rightly alarmed. Many others though, including myself, dismissed any fears that Russia may wage war on Ukraine. “Putin is trying to bully Ukraine into not joining NATO” they said, “It’s all a bluff.” Russia, flexing its military might, sending a warning to the world; trying to curb NATO expansion and attempting to secure its borders. That’s all it was, right?
The signs lay there, right in front of us. In plain sight. Russia’s military build-up was no secret. Many feared the worst, yes. But surely, it would never materialise. Surely even Putin, with all of his delusions of grandeur, would not dare wage a war against Ukraine? It was unthinkable.
Unthinkable, until it happened. On the twenty fourth of february, Russia launched a “special military operation” against Ukraine. What has happened since then? UN condemnations, economic sanctions on Russia, and a mixed bag of victories and defeats. Standard war stuff.
That is, until Wednesday (on the 21st September), when, following a series of substantial setbacks in the face of a massive Ukrainian counter-offensive, Putin announced a ‘partial military mobilisation’ in Russia, a move that signals a turning point in the war, since it effectively indicates an acknowledgement by the Kremlin that things haven’t gone according to plan. Russia’s back is against the wall. Its army recently suffered a series of humiliating defeats, its morale is down in the dumps, shortages are rife, its economy is in tatters.
Pinned against the wall, only two choices remained for Putin. Admit a humiliating defeat and cut his losses, or double-down and escalate the war. Putin’s decision to implement a partial military mobilisation clearly means that he has chosen the latter. Putin is going all in. There is no turning back now. As Andrew Roth, the Guardian’s Moscow correspondent, put it, Russia’s strategy may simply boil down to “win, or escalate.”
Having made the decision to escalate, Putin, therefore, resorted once again to making threats to the West, warning the world that Russia will not shy away from using nuclear weapons “if Ukraine continues with its offensive operations.” “This is not a bluff”, he insisted.
Of course, it is only natural for bluffers to deny that they are bluffing. Of course, Vladimir Putin could very well be bluffing. But in assuming that he is, on counting on it, the West and Russia are playing a perilous game of chicken. Inching ever closer to nuclear armageddon, waiting to see if the other breaks first. They play a game of chicken, knowing its grave consequences, knowing that the survival of the human species may very well be at stake.
Will Putin carry though with his threat? Nobody knows for sure. Had you asked me before the war began, I would have naïvely insisted that the answer was no. Putin was deranged, yes, but not to the extent of launching an all-out nuclear war, I’d have said. But if there is anything that this war has taught us, anything at all, it is to not take Putin’s threats lightly. Many of us had foolishly believed that Russia would never dare to invade Ukraine; that it was merely bullying Ukraine & engaging in the exercise of making empty threats. Look how wrong we were. How we paid the price. A heavy price, yes, but one that the world was able to pay. Nuclear war, however, is different. One wrong move, one false assumption, spending just a moment too long waiting — and alas, it will be far too late to chicken out.
